Friday, 2 March 2012

The Monthly | Australian Treasurer Wayne Swan - Essay

The 0.01 Per Cent: The Rising Influence of Vested Interests in Australia

Wayne Swan



Billionaire activists: Clive Palmer, Andrew Forrest and Gina Rinehart. 
© Philip Norrish/Newspix; Greg Wood/AAP; Tony McDonough/AAP


The rising influence of vested interests is threatening Australia’s egalitarian social contract.
A decade ago, as I waited for my order outside a Maroochydore fish and chip shop, a tall, barefoot young man strolled past wearing a T-shirt that read: ‘Greed is good. Trample the weak. Hurdle the dead.’ Those brutal lines seemed to encapsulate what was then a growing sense of unease in Australia. The world of my Queensland childhood, governed by its implicit assumptions of equality and mutual care, was being driven from sight by a combination of ruthless individualism and unquestioning materialism. Looking out for number one was not only tolerated but encouraged by a government whose agenda, particularly in industrial relations, seemed very far from the social contract, based on a fair day’s pay for a fair day’s work with a decent social safety net for the vulnerable, that had served our nation so well for so long.


Today, when a would-be US president, Mitt Romney, is wealthier than 99.9975% of his fellow Americans, and wealthier than the last eight presidents combined, there’s a global conversation raging about the rich, the poor, the gap between them, and the role of vested interests in the significant widening of that gap in advanced economies over the past three decades.


This is a debate Australia too must be part of. We’ve always prided ourselves on being a nation that’s more equal than most – a place where, if you work hard, you can create a better life for yourself and your family. Our egalitarian spirit is the product of our history and our national character, as well as the institutions and safeguards built up over more than a century. This spirit informed our stimulus response to the global financial crisis, and meant we avoided the kinds of immense social dislocation that occurred elsewhere in the developed world.


But Australia’s fair go is today under threat from a new source. To be blunt, the rising power of vested interests is undermining our equality and threatening our democracy. We see this most obviously in the ferocious and highly misleading campaigns waged in recent years against resource taxation reforms and the pricing of carbon pollution. The infamous billionaires’ protest against the mining tax would have been laughed out of town in the Australia I grew up in, and yet it received a wide and favourable reception two years ago. A handful of vested interests that have pocketed a disproportionate share of the nation’s economic success now feel they have a right to shape Australia’s future to satisfy their own self-interest.


So I write this essay to make a simple point: if we don’t grow together economically, our community will grow apart. Of course, rewards should be proportionate to effort, recognising the hard work and entrepreneurship that create wealth and employment. We should not seek pure equality, but we do need to combat the types of disparities in opportunity that damage our society. That’s why providing more people with a good education and a decent job with fair rights and conditions should be an economic as well as a moral goal.


President Obama described rising income inequality as the defining issue of our time. It has always been one of the defining issues of my political life. It was the theme of a book that I wrote back in 2005, Postcode, and like most Labor activists, tackling rising inequality was one of the tasks that called me into politics. It remains today the horizon towards which we always march.


It was also the abiding purpose of those big-hearted and articulate working people and assorted radicals who created Labor in the nineteenth century. Many of them brought with them to Australia a direct experience of the social tumult of the Industrial Revolution in Britain and Europe. One of our earliest leaders, Andrew Fisher, literally worked down the pit as a child. It was an era in which technological advances were increasing average wealth dramatically but giving the benefits overwhelmingly to a fortunate few. Instead of a mutual obligation between rich and poor, this era bred a winner-takes-all mentality that left many even worse off than they had been before industrialisation. To be working class at that time usually meant a life of grinding poverty, which often ended in an early death. There were few provisions for sickness or old age, leaving many with no option but to endure the harsh conditions.


Many of those who journeyed to Australia came here precisely to escape this sort of life.
Here they saw a chance to create a more equal society in which some of the wealth actually made it to the bottom. And they did it by vesting the role of ameliorating poverty not in an aristocracy but in a democratic state. This is the best way to understand the greatest Australian achievements of the last two centuries: a living wage, a welfare system, public health care, mass home ownership, and accessible technical and higher education.


With the American presidential election processes now underway we’re hearing one term a lot: ‘middle-class society’. Americans still aspire to it even as it slips further from their grasp. ‘Middle-class society’ is a better label for Australia than for the United States, where the middle class is shrinking and economic mobility is under threat.


While America’s rich have left so many of their fellow citizens light years behind them, rising incomes in Australia have been spread far more evenly across the community. Incomes for the poorest 10% in Australia have grown at more than double the average for developed economies in recent decades, while growth in the US and the UK has been substantially below average, according to the OECD.


As well as sharing the gains of economic growth, Australia has done better at preserving economic mobility – the idea that success can be determined by effort and enterprise and not simply where you were born or who your parents are. Across 17 OECD economies, Australians in the bottom 20% of income earners are the equal third most likely to lift themselves out of that situation within three years.


Australian lifestyles bear out what these statistics are saying. Though many still find it hard to make ends meet, working Australians are more likely to holiday overseas, drive a recent model car and live in a bigger home than their parents’ generation. This generalised affluence is now shaping our national culture. Today the tradie has more traction in our national psyche than the celebrity because he or she symbolises the idea of economic self-determination and affluence that half a century ago was obtainable only by a fortunate few. By world standards, and particularly by the standards of a generation ago, the Australian working class is now mostly middle class.


Having said that, we’re not an economically equal society by any means. There are sizeable pockets of considerable social disadvantage to be found in every state, especially among Indigenous communities and in older industrial and regional areas. There is a lot left to do to tackle poverty and disadvantage; we have not won a decisive victory.


To help maintain our egalitarianism, policies need to do some heavy lifting. We’ve seen a quiet revolution underway in recent years in our tax and transfer system to ensure the relief goes to those who need it most. Australia’s plans to means-test the private health insurance rebate and treble the tax-free threshold are just the latest examples of the sort of progressive reform that is now next to impossible in the US because of political gridlock. Australia’s egalitarian social contract is also underpinned by a fair and flexible industrial relations system. Over the past century, labour laws have developed which balance the interests of workers and employers, providing both incentives for hard work and protections against exploitation. It was the erosion of these laws, under the guise of WorkChoices, that the Australian people so thoroughly rejected at the 2007 election.


A look at the US shows how well our policies are doing by comparison. Shortly after World War II, Australia and the US were roughly equal in the percentage of total income going to the top 1%. Today the gap between the rich and the rest in the US is around twice the size of ours: in 2008, the top 1% in the US received around 17.7% of all income, while the figure is just 8.6% in Australia.


If President Obama is right about inequality being the defining issue of our time, then it follows that here in Australia we should be doing all we can to maintain our sense of egalitarian fairness. This is what one of the most eloquent defenders of social democracy, historian and philosopher Tony Judt, was getting at when he wrote just before his death in 2010, paralysed from the neck down by the degenerative Lou Gehrig’s disease, that the type of society of generalised middle-class affluence that social democracy had managed to create was worth fighting hard for to retain.


Today, surveying the wreckage of the worst global downturn since the Great Depression, many leading thinkers argue the ideal of the middle-class society is under mortal threat in the West, even as a growing middle class is lifting hundreds of millions out of poverty in the East. One of the most compelling contributions to the debate comes from Francis Fukuyama, who wrote in Foreign Affairs about the dangers of the erosion of the middle-class social base in the developed world. “From the days of Aristotle,” writes Fukuyama, “thinkers have believed that stable democracy rests on a broad middle class and that societies with extremes of wealth and poverty are susceptible either to oligarchic domination or populist revolution.” These are the extremes, but, as he goes on to argue, we are already witnessing “some very troubling economic and social trends … which threaten the stability of contemporary liberal democracies and dethrone democratic ideology as it is now understood.”


These trends are all too evident in a recently released and widely discussed report by the OECD, ‘Divided We Stand: Why Inequality Keeps Rising’. It found that starting in the 1970s and through the 1980s, coinciding with the Reagan–Thatcher revolutions, inequality in the West has widened considerably. Across the developed world, the top is accelerating away from the middle much faster than the middle is moving away from the bottom. The catch cry of Wall Street’s Zuccotti Park and the Occupy movement, ‘We are the 99%’, has shone a spotlight on the top 1%. Between 1979 and 2007 in the US, the top 1% saw their after-tax incomes rise 275%, while the middle two thirds saw their after-tax incomes increase by less than 40%.


Investment income is a strong driver of this concentrated privilege, with Forbes finding the top 0.1% net over half of all capital gains in the US. Even as this group’s share of the pie has rapidly increased, their tax rates have been in decline for five decades. This sort of unfairness can’t go on. Statistics like these have fanned public condemnation of the far-right, ‘you’re-on-your-own’ school of economics responsible. Some have argued that it was the reincarnation of these policies in Britain that led to violent riots in London last year. The Archbishop of Canterbury observed many of those involved were people who felt they had nothing to lose in a society where, increasingly, the winners take all.


What makes the increasing inequality in countries like the US and UK so much worse is that basic pay levels have stagnated. Not surprisingly, the beneficiaries have set out to defend and hang on to their gains. In the US in particular this inequality has become self-reinforcing, as immense personal and corporate wealth has created seemingly unstoppable lobbying power which aims to head off any effort to impose reasonable levels of regulation and taxation.


This lobbying effort contributed directly to the worldwide financial collapse of four years ago, from which the world economy has not yet recovered. Some, it seems, never learn. For instance, all remaining Republican candidates have pledged if elected to repeal the Dodd–Frank Act which imposed more and better regulation on the financial sector in response to the 2008 Wall Street collapse. So let’s understand what’s at stake: allowing vested interests to distort the shape of economic growth for their own narrow advantage is not only bad for our democracy and our community, it is bad for our economy.


Thankfully, other voices are calling loudly for change. The chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisors, Alan Krueger, has warned that the US has “reached the point that inequality in incomes is causing an unhealthy division in opportunities, and is a threat to our economic growth”. Prior to its Davos meeting earlier this year, the World Economic Forum put severe income disparity at the top of its list of global risks over the next ten years. According to the WEF, risks posed by income inequalities or major systemic financial collapse have this year eclipsed climate change.


Similarly, a Pew Research Center survey found that friction between rich and poor in the US is now a greater source of social tension than the issues of race and immigration. Concern about conflict between rich and poor is now higher than it was in 2009, which tells a powerful story about how the financial disaster that began in 2008 continues to shape American life.


I was heartened that the champion of the free market, the Financial Times, recently took up the debate in its ‘Capitalism in Crisis’ series, editorialising that “public confidence in shareholder capitalism can only be restored if owners recognise this responsibility [to society]”. As part of this excellent series, John Plender warned that the excessive greed of those at the top of the economy, most notably those in the finance sector, is now causing a crisis of legitimacy that is eroding business’s social licence and undermining support for open trade. He cites a recent book by economist Stewart Lansley to show that, since 2007, while average households have experienced a “long and deep squeeze”, high finance has become “a cash-cow for a global super-rich elite”. John Maynard Keynes, Plender reminds us, pointed out that the legitimacy of capitalism rests on the existence of an implicit social contract between the rich and the rest. Rampant money-making of the sort witnessed today is dissolving that contract before our very eyes.


Elsewhere in the series, Philip Stephens has written that “in a time of austerity, the gulf between the 1% and the 99% puts a question mark over the legitimacy of the market system”. He quotes a recent poll that shows Americans’ support for free enterprise has fallen dramatically in just ten years, from 80% to 60%. This is worrying because, despite its faults, the market system is still the best mechanism for generating prosperity for more people. We can’t afford to let it be undermined by the excessive greed of a wildly irresponsible few.


As I have mentioned, the idea that the economy exists to serve society was for generations one of the foundational and legitimising pillars of capitalism. Central to this threat is the rising power of vested interests. As President Obama has pointed out, well-funded lobby groups give “an outsized voice to the few” by “selling out our democracy to the highest bidder”. They are not, however, limited to Washington. Australian vested interests too are gathering force.


In the last couple of years, Australia has seen the emergence of our own distributional coalitions willing to use their considerable wealth to oppose good public policy and economic reforms designed to benefit the majority. The combination of industry deep pockets, conservative political support, biased editorial policy and shock-jock ranting has been mobilised in an attempt to protect vested interest. It’s reflected in how the Coalition under Tony Abbott has recently radicalised itself into an Australian version of the Tea Party, more than willing to kneecap Australia’s three-decade reform project for cheap political points.


There are many Australians of great wealth who make important and considered contributions to the national debate. I always welcome that involvement in the discussion of public policy whether I agree with them or not. What characterises the vested interests that I’m concerned about is how they misrepresent their self-interest as the national interest. There has been a perceptible shift in this country in recent years, and it is sadly very much in the American direction of stronger and stronger influence being wielded by a smaller and smaller minority of vested interests. Crucially, much of our media seems more and more inclined to accept that growing influence.


I know that 99% of businesspeople want the best for Australia, and that most people want us to remain the nation of the fair go. I talk to business owners from coast to coast and am constantly impressed by their forward-looking and can-do natures. For every Andrew Forrest who wails about high company taxes and then admits to not paying any, there are a hundred Australian businesspeople who held on to their employees and worked with government to keep the doors of Australian business open during the GFC. Despite the howling of a small minority, the vast bulk of the resources industry is in the cart for more efficient profits-based resource taxation which serves to strengthen our entire economy. The vast majority of our miners accept that they have a social obligation to pay their fair share of tax on the resources Australians own. 


But again, it’s that tiny 1%, or even 0.1%, who are trying to drown out the others, who are blind to the national interest, and who pour their considerable personal fortunes into advertising, armies of lobbyists, dodgy modelling and corporate and commercial manoeuvring designed to influence editorial decisions.


The latest example of this is the foray by Australia’s richest person, Gina Rinehart, into Fairfax Media, reportedly in an attempt to wield greater influence on public opinion and further her commercial interests at a time when the overwhelming economic consensus is that it’s critical to use the economic weight of the resources boom to strengthen the entire economy. Without a blush, her friend and fellow media owner John Singleton let the cat out of the bag when he told the Sydney Morning Herald that he and Rinehart had been “able to overtly and covertly attack governments … because we have people employed by us like Andrew Bolt and Alan Jones and Ray Hadley who agree with [our] thinking”.


I fear Australia’s extraordinary success has never been in more jeopardy than right now because of the rising power of vested interests. This poison has infected our politics and is seeping into our economy. Though these vested interests have not yet prevailed, every day their demands get louder. Politicians have a choice: between exploiting divisions by promoting fear and appealing to the sense of fairness and decency that is the foundation of our middle-class society; between standing up for workers and kneeling down at the feet of the Gina Rineharts and the Clive Palmers.


Australia’s future in the Asian Century will rely on retaining a strong, united, middle-class society. We will need a nation which calls on everyone’s skills; which is tolerant not resentful; which recognises the need for public investment in skills, infrastructure and education; and which continues to extend a social licence to the market so Australia’s flair for entrepreneurship, innovation and free trade can continue to create more wealth for all of us.
Instead of capitulating to the demands of the vested interests, and allowing the benefits to amass disproportionately to them, we have a chance to bend the extraordinary shift in the global economy from West to East to the advantage of all Australians. This is neither the fierce pro-market capitalism that got us into a global financial fix, nor is it anti-market socialist ideology. It’s simply the best way to keep growing Australia’s economic pie so ultimately we all end up better off. Ensuring the social contract does not erode is vital if we want to avoid a hollowed-out capitalism assured of its  own collapse.


To me, the most significant question in politics when I started out in the late ’70s, when I wrote Postcode, and when I go to work tomorrow, is what we use our prosperity for. It’s not just about putting dollars in people’s pockets, but about building a better society; a society that creates wealth and spreads opportunity, a society that lifts up the worst-off and gives everyone a decent shot at a decent life.


When we were confronted with the biggest economic downturn in 75 years, our egalitarian values underpinned our response. Our stimulus package was designed to protect jobs and business. Our unemployment rate is now around half that of Europe and our economy is 7% larger than it was before the GFC, while other developed economies have yet to make up the ground they lost.


We have some big challenges ahead of us, like lifting productivity and managing the effects of the mining boom, the impact of climate change and the stresses of an economy in transition. As part of addressing these economic challenges, we must fight a pitched battle against the influence of vested interests that seek to shape public policy to their own excessive benefit and at the expense of our middle-class society.


Our country cannot afford to let them win out over the broader community. There is simply too much at stake. Australia walks tall in the world for the strength of our economy and our egalitarianism. We can show the way in our politics as well, by ensuring that the voices of the majority are not drowned out by the interests of a well-funded, noisy handful. Success for us will require not the growth of inequality and a shrinking middle class, but shrinking inequality and a growing middle class. This is the heritage and the heartbeat of the Australian Labor Party. This is what I’ve spent my career striving to protect and promote. It is the only way forward if we are to ensure the great mass of good-hearted Australians are winners in the Asian Century, and not just a fortunate few.


The Deputy Prime Minister and Treasurer thanks friends and colleagues for assistance with this piece.


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Flood-proof Bruce Highway 'absurd'?



Michael Serenc
Friday, March 2, 2012
© The Cairns Post

Rough road: RACQ has launched a campaign to demand at least a $1 billion investment over the next 10 years to upgrade the Bruce Highway.

Politicans have made many promises to Far Northerners over the years to flood-proof and upgrade the Bruce Highway.


But now, the language has changed with both Labor and the LNP, along with the Department of Transport and Main Roads admitting the national link between Cairns and Brisbane will never be flood-proof. 

"Any talk of flood-proofing is absurd, because Queensland’s natural disasters and floodplains are very difficult to counter," Labor’s MP for Mulgrave Curtis Pitt said yesterday. "Our plan is to make sure we have as many overtaking lanes as flood immune as possible. "We need to look at those hot spots and do our very best."

The LNP’s candidate for Mulgrave Robyn Quick refused to guarantee the highway could be permanently flood-proofed."No one is ever going to completely flood-proof the highway from beginning to end, but what we will do is identify those areas where we can re-align the highway to avoid some of those really bad areas," she said. "Our objective would be that nothing would be under water for longer than 24 hours."

As it stands, Labor is sticking to its multi-million dollar Bruce Highway Upgrade Strategy, while the LNP would develop a 10-year Bruce Highway Crisis Action Plan within the first six months of forming government. The department labelled the idea of flood-proofing any road as long and complex as the Bruce Highway "extraordinarily difficult".

Improving flood immunity between Cairns and Townsville will reduce the frequency and duration of road closures caused by flooding," a department spokesperson said. The spokesperson added it’s "aiming to achieve an annual average time of closure of no more than 10 hours and a maximum closure of 48 hours".

A hotly-debated issue in the Far North, the Bruce Highway was again in the spotlight this week after the RACQ demanded at least a $1 billion investment over the next 10 years to upgrade the vital link. The campaign comes in the middle of state election with both Labor and the LNP vying to convince voters that they have a workable solution.

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Mick Borzi makes a stand as political clouds gather


Devolution referendum finds support from Tableland Regional Council

Tony Stickley
Friday, March 2, 2012
© The Cairns Post

Support: Former Mareeba Shire mayor Mick Borzi said there's plenty of support for a referendum on devolution.

The proof of support for a referendum on devolution from the Tableland Regional Council was now clear, former Mareeba Shire mayor Mick Borzi said yesterday.


More than 600 people packed into Mareeba's International Club to discuss a range of issues affecting the town. "We called for a vote for a referendum to de-amalgamate," Mr Borzi said. "There was only one vote against."

Mr Borzi said there might have been two or three abstentions but essentially the voting was 600 to one. He said before Mareeba Shire amalgamated with Atherton, Herberton and Eacham shires four years ago, a poll showed 86 per cent of locals opposed the move.

Mr Borzi said people outlined "frustrations" including developers having to wait long to progress projects and people having communication difficulties. "I will now write to the heads of the political parties and to the Government telling them about the meeting and the outcome and see what happens," Mr Borzi said.

He said it would be a "very courageous" Government that rejected outright a call for a request for a vote on de-amalgamation. Mr Borzi said the cost of de-amalgamating would be $2.3 million, but he expected the Government to pay. "It was forced upon us by the State Government so the people should not have to pay for it…the Government should," he said.

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Julia Gillard has no idea about veracity

Transcript of doorstop interview, Canberra

WED 29 FEBRUARY 2012



JOURNALIST: Prime Minister, are you considering a new ban on live cattle exports to Indonesia following Lateline last night?

PM: Minister Ludwig is addressing this issue. We’ve obviously worked hard on standards for live animal exports and worked hard on the inspecting of them as well.
So Minister Ludwig will be dealing with the details.

JOURNALIST: Can you clarify the Bob Carr situation, was he offered a job?

PM: The story that’s on the front page of The Australian newspaper today is completely untrue.

JOURNALIST: Were you overruled though?

PM: I’ve just said – completely untrue.

JOURNALIST: In any way?

PM: I’ve just said – completely untrue and let me make this very clear: of course my door is open to talk to people as I work my way through the reshuffle, but the decisions are mine and I’ll make them.

JOURNALIST: What do you make about the sexist remarks about VC winner Ben Roberts-Smith?

PM: Sorry?

JOURNALIST: Someone on The Circle has made some sexist, disrespectful remarks about the-

PM: -I don’t know anything about that, I’m afraid. 


http://www.pm.gov.au/press-office/transcript-doorstop-interview-canberra-5

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Julia Gillard 'accident prone' on the ropes again

Julie Bishop checkmates Julia Gillard in credibility gap




It's open season on Julia Gillard's character, with the opposition trying to wound her credibility through repetition, regurgitation and alliteration.

Parliament has become the house of nasty, not nice, in the wake of the Carr wreck. Julie Bishop successfully showed yesterday she had mastered her seashells and seashore by reprising a cutting line by Laurie Oakes: the Prime Minister was "silly and slippery and slimy and shifty".


The Deputy Opposition Leader took her cudgel from the doors of Parliament House to question time and revelled in the weapon's versatility. "The pattern of behaviour that is emerging borders on the pathological," Bishop said of Gillard, as she sought to suspend normal programming so the PM could be called upon to explain the circumstances of the "botched attempt" to get Bob Carr to Canberra as foreign minister.


"The PM has turned denying the undeniable into an art form," she said. "The PM, when confronted with indisputable facts, manufactures a version of events that invariably turns out to be the opposite of what is true." And on and on it went, from Gillard's East Timor flap, to the dudding of Andrew Wilkie, the Australia Day riot and betrayal of Kevin Rudd.


Peter Slipper asked Bishop to withdraw a remark only once, which seemed an arbitrary call, given the multiple ways Bishop was allowed to suggest her opponent was a liar. Although it was not a censure motion, it sounded awfully like the "slag and bag" the Speaker is hoping to outlaw. Bishop argued she was simply asking Gillard "to explain why she seeks to construct versions of events when the truth will do". "Members will recall the Prime Minister telling us that she was a prize winner in Bible studies," she said in climax. "Perhaps she might remember Matthew 12:37: 'By your words you will be justified; by your words you will be condemned'."


The motion was lost 73-68.
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Julia Gillard could not lie straight in bed!

Julia Gillard admits talks to lure Bob Carr

Julia Gillard has confirmed she held talks with former NSW premier Bob Carr over drafting him to serve in her government, sparking fresh opposition attacks on her honesty and political judgment.



The Prime Minister has backed away from her claim that a report in The Australian on Wednesday revealing her dealings with Mr Carr was "completely untrue", after being challenged by the opposition to repeat her claim in parliament.


The backdown came yesterday as Labor MPs continued to express concern about Ms Gillard's handling of a cabinet reshuffle sparked by the retirement of former foreign minister and beaten leadership candidate Kevin Rudd. The Prime Minister will announce the reshuffle today and is expected to hand Defence Minister Stephen Smith the foreign affairs portfolio and promote former defence minister Joel Fitzgibbon back to the frontbench. Sydney MP David Bradbury is tipped for promotion to the ministry, while Housing Minister Robert McClelland is expected to be sacked.
Speculation last night centred on Mr Smith taking an amalgamated foreign affairs and trade portfolio, leaving current Trade Minister Craig Emerson clear to take Defence. On Wednesday, as supporters celebrated Ms Gillard's victory over Mr Rudd in Monday's leadership spill, The Australian revealed that Labor had attempted to draft Mr Carr to become foreign minister. The report said the offer to Mr Carr was withdrawn amid complaints from serving ministers - including Mr Smith, who saw himself as a candidate for the plum post. On Wednesday, when Ms Gillard was asked about The Australian's report, she declared it was "completely untrue" - despite the fact that Mr Carr had confirmed to The Australian in Sydney earlier that day that an offer of the foreign ministry had been made and withdrawn.


Mr Carr later released a statement clarifying his position by saying he had held talks with Labor officials but stating: "Prime Minister Gillard had definitely not made any offer about the Foreign Affairs Ministry nor had anyone on her behalf." But The Australian has confirmed with several senior ministers an offer was made to Mr Carr. Yesterday, as the opposition warned that misleading parliament was "a sackable offence", Ms Gillard was asked whether she stood by her attack on The Australian's reporting of the matter. The Prime Minister said: "Yes, I would repeat that statement, Mr Speaker, and I repeat the words that I said at the doorstop yesterday about this matter. I was asked about the matters in The Australian, I said they were untrue. If the Leader of the Opposition is so interested, yes, I did have a conversation with Bob Carr."


Later Ms Gillard said: "I am the only person who can make offers in relation to ministries."
The opposition seized on the admission to accuse Ms Gillard of dishonesty, noting that she had omitted the word "completely" from her claim that the report of the Carr affair was wrong. "The Prime Minister has turned denying the undeniable into an artform," said Liberal Party deputy leader Julie Bishop. There was a pattern of behaviour emerging that "borders on the pathological". Opposition frontbencher Christopher Pyne joined the attack, declaring Ms Gillard had used "weasel words" rather than repeat her claims about The Australian in parliament. 


There was growing anger last night among Labor MPs, including ministers, who asked how Ms Gillard could turn a brilliant victory over Mr Rudd into a "PR disaster" over her cabinet reshuffle. "She's put a lot of her colleagues in uncomfortable positions," one source said. "She has mishandled the media and made herself look shifty again." Another MP said it was clear Ms Gillard had angered colleagues, particularly Mr Smith. "If he gets the foreign ministry it will look like she was bullied into it." the MP said. "But if he doesn't it will look like he was passed over. This is a man who has supported her leadership despite the media writing he could be a third candidate for her job."


The comments came amid continuing speculation about the cabinet reshuffle. It is expected Mr Smith will take on foreign affairs, the portfolio he vacated after the 2010 election to make way for Mr Rudd. In expectation of Mr Smith's move, senior Defence officials have been pushing the Prime Minister to appoint Industry and Climate Change Minister Greg Combet to Mr Smith's current portfolio of defence. Mr Combet impressed Defence officials as minister for defence personnel, materiel and science in the Rudd government, and would bring that experience to the portfolio. But it would be difficult to move him, given the government's carbon tax package is due to take effect from July 1. Mr Fitzgibbon is expected to return to the ministry, but not in the portfolio he left in 2009, and his fellow NSW Right colleague, western Sydney MP David Bradbury, is tipped for promotion.


Sources last night suggested that acting against all five ministers who supported Kevin Rudd in the leadership ballot would be difficult for the Prime Minister. The mining industry has pleaded for Resources Minister Martin Ferguson to be retained, as has the car industry for Manufacturing Minister Kim Carr. While Mr McClelland's position looks extremely shaky, Chris Bowen has the strong support of the NSW Right, and the Prime Minister has already assured Infrastructure Minister and leader of government business Anthony Albanese of his job. Monday's resignation of NSW senator Mark Arbib has added to arguments to keep Senator Carr
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Thursday, 1 March 2012

Nonviolent Resistance in the Arab Spring: The Critical Role of Military-Opposition Alliances

Sharon Erickson Nepstad
Article first published online: 4 NOV 2011
DOI: 10.1111/j.1662-6370.2011.02043.x
In recent decades, we have seen an increase in “people power” movements that use civil resistance to challenge authoritarian regimes. From the 1986 ousting of Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos to the recent uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt, these movements have demonstrated that citizens are able to overturn long-standing dictatorships without violence. While these movements struggle for regime change, they are distinct from the “classic revolutions” of the past, both in terms of their character and strategy. As Timothy Garton Ash put it, classic revolutions are “violent, utopian, professedly class-based, and characterized by a progressive radicalization, culminating in terror” while unarmed revolutions are “nonviolent, anti-utopian, based not on a single class but on broad social coalitions, and characterized by the application of mass social pressure—‘people power’—to bring the current powerholders to negotiate” (2009: 19).

Yet how do nonviolent movements succeed when they rise up against highly repressive rulers? Why are some movements victorious while others are defeated? In this article, I analyze the dynamics of nonviolent resistance in three Arab Spring cases: Tunisia, Egypt, and Syria. While several factors shaped these movements’ abilities to usher in regime change, I focus specifically on the role of the armed forces. I argue that the military’s decision to remain loyal to the regime or to side with civil resisters heavily shaped the outcomes of these Arab Spring uprisings.


Non-violent Civil Resistance

Although nonviolent revolutionary movements are qualitatively different from violent revolutions, they generally arise from the same conditions. Such movements erupt when there are widespread grievances against the state and elites shift their allegiance from the regime to the opposition. Moreover, certain events – such as a brutal crackdown or an assassination of an opposition figure – often transforms longstanding grievances into moral outrage, which may make citizens willing to act. But indignation is not enough. There must also be a culture of resistance that situates this anger within a broader ideological critique of the regime. Moreover, there must be mobilizing organizations that can coordinate and direct the rebellion (Goldstone 2001, 2009).

Once underway, nonviolent revolutions display different dynamics than violent revolutions. The most obvious difference is that they rely on divergent tactics and strategies. The strategy of nonviolent resistance has been well articulated by political theorist Gene Sharp (1973, 2010). Drawing on the ideas of Thoreau and Gandhi, Sharp argues that no government can exist without the obedience and consent of the governed. Therefore, even ruthless dictators can be overthrown nonviolently if an oppressed population withholds cooperation, making it impossible for a regime to function.

How do civil resisters accomplish this? According to Sharp, citizens have six types of power that they can withdraw from a regime. First, citizens can refuse to grant legitimacy to a ruler. This may happen, for example, when a population rejects the results of a fraudulent election, making it difficult for the proclaimed ruler to gain credibility at home and abroad. Second, people can contest ideologies of obedience that encourage submission to the government. This may occur as religious leaders interpret scripture to support resistance, as Reverend Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. did during the U.S. civil rights movement, or as opposition leaders recast nationalism to encourage rebellion.


 Third, citizens can refuse to cooperate with a regime, as the Danish did when Nazi forces ordered them to turn over all Jewish residents. Fourth, citizens can withdraw their material resources from a regime by refusing to pay taxes or purchase government goods and services. Fifth, a population can undermine a regime’s ability to function by withholding its skills and labor through a general strike. Sixth, citizens can subvert a ruler’s sanctioning power – either by undermining the loyalty of the state security forces and encouraging mutiny or by refusing to be deterred by punishments and repression. If a civil resistance movement can systematically withdraw these various forms of support, then the regime can no longer operate and will collapse.

But which of these strategic actions matter most for nonviolent movements? Two recent studies conclude that a key factor is whether regimes’ sanctioning power is depleted through security force defections (Stephan and Chenoweth 2008; Nepstad 2011). While defections have no measureable effect on the outcome of armed struggles, Chenoweth and Stephan found that nonviolent revolutionary movements are 46 times more likely to succeed when security force defections occur. Why? When police are unwilling to attack or arrest protesters, and when mutinous soldiers no longer protect rulers, even the most tyrannical leaders are left powerless and vulnerable.


The Role of the Military in the Arab Spring Uprisings


Building upon the nonviolence literature’s emphasis on security force defections, I examine the role this factor played in several Arab Spring uprisings. Specifically, I emphasize how the military’s decision to side with civil resisters or the state has shaped the struggle in the following three nations: 1) Tunisia and 2) Egypt, where authoritarian rulers were successful deposed; and 3) Syria, where some defections have occurred but the regime has managed to retain power.


Tunisia

The Tunisian uprising emerged because citizens suffered from an ailing economy, a corrupt regime, and lack of political freedoms. Yet there had been little resistance to President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali during his 23-year-rule. What transformed popular discontent into resistance was an atrocity that occurred on December 17, 2010. On this date, a young vegetable vendor had his cart confiscated by police since he did not have a license to operate. When he was unable to recover the cart or appeal to officials, he set himself on fire. A few days later, a couple others committed suicide in response to the bleak economic situation. Protests erupted and escalated, expanding to several cities. By early January 2011, people from various socioeconomic backgrounds joined the protests. Thousands of lawyers and teachers went on strike. In response to the unrest, the regime imposed a curfew but few protesters complied with it. Despite widespread strikes and demonstrations, Ben Ali did not resign. However, when Army Chief Rachid Ammar refused orders to shoot civilians, Ben Ali realized that he had no means of enforcing his rule and thus he fled to Saudia Arabia on January 14 (Kirkpatrick 2011).


Egypt

Inspired by the success of the Tunisian movement, Egyptian civil resisters mobilized in response to deteriorating economic conditions, police brutality, corruption and political repression. Their primary aim, however, was to oust President Hosni Mubarak, who had ruled Egypt for 30 years. Opposition organizers held their first demonstration on January 25, 2011. Widely publicized through social media networks, tens of thousands turned out. The regime responded by blocking the internet and sending out troops. When this failed to stop the demonstrations, Mubarak made several concessions, including a promise to not seek re-election. 


Civil resisters were not appeased and protests continued. During this time, the military began siding with the opposition. On January 29, soldiers refused to shoot at civil resisters; a couple days later, the military made a public statement that it would not use force to crush the movement (Black, Shenker, and McGreal 2011). Mubarak tried to retain his dwindling power by making further concessions – such as the replacement of his entire cabinet, the transfer of responsibilities to his Vice President, and a 15 percent increase in state pensions and salaries (McGreal and Tran 2011). It was not enough. Civil resisters wanted Mubarak to leave. When he refused, they launched a labor strike. On February 11, 2011, with several hundred thousand protesters refusing to back down and the military poised to oust him, Mubarak resigned.


Syria

Just as the Egyptian revolt erupted, Syrians began protesting high unemployment rates, declining standards of living, human rights abuses, and nearly 50 years of emergency rule that had severely restricted political freedoms. The Syrian state – which is solely controlled by the Baath Party, headed by President Bashar al-Assad – had kept a lid on protest through its emergency measures. 


However, on January 26, a citizen set himself on fire, imitating the immolation that sparked the Tunisian uprising. Subsequently, opposition organizers called upon citizens to attend the “Day of Rage” protest. Over the next weeks, small demonstrations took place but they were quickly crushed by the military. However, by late March 2011, hundreds of thousands protested in cities across Syria. With expanded resistance came expanded repression; the military used tanks and snipers to clear the demonstrations. While President Bashar al-Assad also made concessions, he relied mostly on violence as a tool of control. The result: thousands of civil resisters have been killed since the uprising emerged (Van Dam 2011).


Disturbed by orders to attack unarmed civilians, troops began defecting during the summer of 2011. One base in the northern town of Jisr al-Shughour saw half its soldiers defect (Chulov 2011). What has happened to these soldiers? Some have fled, seeking asylum abroad. Others have been publicly executed by the Syrian state (Owen 2011). And some formed the Free Syrian Army, which aims to overthrow Assad’s rule through an armed struggle (Sly 2011). Yet the overall number of defectors is still quite small, estimated at a few thousand (Oweis 2011; Karam 2011). This is miniscule compared to the 220,000 member Syrian military (Maclean 2011). Because most soldiers have remained loyal to the Assad regime, the uprising has been unable to succeed.


Discussion


In comparing the uprisings in Tunisia, Egypt, and Syria, we see that in all three cases, civil resisters used the standard “weapons” of strategic nonviolence including mass demonstrations, general strikes, non-cooperation, and civil disobedience. But this was not enough. Consistent with other studies of nonviolent revolts (Chenoweth and Stephan 2011; Nepstad 2011), one factor distinguishing the successful movements from the (currently) unsuccessful Syrian case is whether the military as an institution shifted allegiance from the state to the opposition. 


In Tunisia and Egypt, long-standing rulers were deposed just days after the armed forces sided with civil resisters. In Syria, the majority of troops have remained loyal, diligently carrying out orders to repress the resistance, and hence the Assad regime has retained power. Yet the situation appears to be shifting: now that some defectors have taken up arms, Syria may be moving toward civil war, as happened in the Libyan struggle against Muammar Gaddafi.


Based on these observations, I propose the following theoretical premises:
  • 1
    Nonviolent revolutionary movements that win the support of the regime’s military institution are likely to achieve regime change (e.g. Tunisia, Egypt).
  • 2
    Nonviolent revolutionary movements that do not win the support of the regime’s military institution are unlikely to achieve regime change (e.g. Syria).
  • 3
    In nonviolent revolutionary struggles, if military personnel are comprised of different ethnic or religious groups that have unequal power relations to the regime, the likelihood that the military as a whole will side with the opposition movement is low (Syria).
  • 4
    In nonviolent revolutionary struggles, when military defectors take up armed struggle against the state, the nonviolent aspect of the struggle will dissipate and the nation will likely slide into civil war (Libya and potentially Syria).
I am not suggesting that defections and mutiny are the only significant factors in the outcome of these movements. Clearly, international pressures helped force Ben Ali and Mubarak out of office (Gardener 2011; Ritter, forthcoming in 2013), just as various structural factors contributed to their demise (Goodwin 2011). Moreover, the involvement of the military in these regime change processes can generate new problems as civil resisters work to establish democratic regimes. Thus it is clear that winning over the armed forces is not a panacea that guarantees a happy ending for each nonviolent uprising. Nonetheless, because this factor did play a role in the outcome of the Tunisian, Egyptian and Syrian movements, it merits closer attention.

As we give closer attention to the pivotal role of armed forces in these citizen-based revolutionary movements, one of the main questions that we need to ask is: what leads troops to jump ship? Binnendijk and Marovic (2006) argue that the military is likely to side with an opposition movement when there is a combination of incentives to defect (such as the hope for improved status and material wellbeing under a new regime) and deterrents against carrying out orders to repress (such as global broadcasting of any attacks on civil resisters, which might induce significant political costs to the state). In my own study of nonviolent revolutions in the late 20th century, I proposed that troops may be less reliable and more likely to defect if: a) they share a common ethnic or religious identity with civil resisters but not with regime leaders; b) they know others who are defecting; c) if resisters remain nonviolent, thereby making repression difficult to justify; and d) if troops do not derive any direct benefits from the regime (Nepstad 2011).

Did any of these conditions contribute to mutiny in the Tunisian, Egyptian, and Syrian cases? Current media coverage of Syrian defections indicates that sectarian religious identities may be playing a role. Approximately 11 percent of Syrians are Alawite, an offshoot of Shiite Islam, while an estimated 75 percent are Sunni (Van Dam 2011). Although they are a minority, Alawites hold most political positions and disproportionately fill the ranks of military commanders and security chiefs. In contrast, the military rank-and-file are largely Sunni conscripts. These conscripts are more likely to identify with the mostly Sunni civil resisters rather than with the Alawite-dominated state, which increases their odds of defecting.

Sectarian identities may also explain why the Syrian military as a whole has not jumped ship. The Alawite officers who control the military are unlikely to oppose Assad since their fate is tied to his. If Assad is deposed, Alawite dominance and privilege is likely to be lost, too. Thus the current concern is less about whether the Syrian military will abandon Assad and more about whether the military will split into opposing armed factions (Maclean 2011). If this happens, then Syrians are likely facing a protracted civil war.

The Egyptian case further underscores the premise that the military’s decision of whether to remain loyal to the regime is influenced by what it can potentially gain or lose. In Syria, Alawite officers remain loyal in order to preserve their privilege. In Egypt, military officers may have jumped ship to avoid losing financial assets. Over the past decades, the Egyptian military has not limited its focus to security matters; it has also acquired valuable real estate and numerous industries. By one estimate, the military commands up to 40 percent of the Egyptian economy (Hammer 2011). Before the events of 2011, Egyptian officers expressed concern about President Mubarak’s plan to appoint his son Gamal as his successor. If Gamal took office, many believed that he would implement privatization policies that would dismantle the military’s business holdings. Thus there was a financial incentive for the military to side with civil resisters to force the Mubarak regime out.

We know less about the reasons behind the Tunisian military’s decision to support the revolution. Some speculate that it is because Tunisia’s military is one of the smallest and poorest in the region and, unlike the Syrian military, it is comprised of officers from the entire socio-economic spectrum. Other analysts emphasize that the Tunisian military has an established tradition of being apolitical. That is, the military has been committed to providing stability and security to Tunisian citizens, not supporting a particular political party or agenda (Cook 2011; Kirkpatrick). Thus it appears that the Tunisian military had neither political nor economic interests at stake that would predispose it to uphold Ben Ali’s regime during the uprising.
 

Conclusion


Further research is needed to fully understand why militaries remain loyal or side with civil resisters during these types of political conflicts. Yet based on the reasons I explore in this article, one might ask if civil resisters have any influence at all on the path the military chooses. Is it merely about what the armed forces have to gain or lose if a regime collapses? Is it only about sectarian identities that may cause individual soldiers to sympathize with protesters?

I argue that civil resisters played a critical role in the following ways. First, it was these activists’ tactics of nonviolent disruption that created national crises, which in turned forced the military to choose sides. Second, the nonviolent discipline that most civil resisters demonstrated increased the likelihood that troops would defect. If resisters had used violence, troops may have accepted the regime’s view that these were radical terrorists. But the fact that most civil resisters were nonviolent made it difficult to justify the use of force. As one Syrian defector stated, he had been told by the regime that they were fighting heavily armed terrorists who were supported by foreign interests. 


When he realized that the protesters were unarmed civilians, he felt the regime had deceived him and he could not bring himself to shoot reasonable citizens who had reasonable demands (Chulov 2011). Finally, through their innovative use of technology and social media sources, activists – especially in Egypt – increased the potential political costs that the military would incur if it sided with the regime and violently attacked civil resisters. Since the whole world was watching, this type of crackdown would surely have elicited international condemnation and the potential end to diplomatic relations, trade agreements, and aid. In short, although there were other considerations involved, nonviolent resisters’ actions added new incentives and deterrents that undoubtedly helped the Tunisian and Egyptian militaries decide to support the revolutions.


References
 
  • Binnendijk, A. L. and I. Marovic. (2006). Power and Persuasion: Nonviolent Strategies to Influence State Security Forces in Serbia (2000) and Ukraine (2004). Communist and Post-Communist Studies 39(3): 411–429.
  • Black, I., J. Shenker, and C. McGreal. (2011). Egypt Set for Mass Protest as Army Rules Out Force. The Guardian, January 31, page 1.
  • Chulov, M. (2011). Syrian Army Defector Says He Was Told to Shoot Unarmed Protesters. The Guardian, June 27.
  • Cook, S. A. (2011). The Calculations of Tunisia’s Military. Foreign Policy, 20 January.
  • Gardener, L. (2011). The Road to Tahrir Square. New York: New Press.
  • Garton Ash, T. (2009). Velvet Revolutions: The Prospects. New York Review of Books, 3 December.
  • Goldstone, J. A. (2001). Toward a Fourth Generation of Revolutionary Theory. Annual Review of Political Science 4: 139–187.
  • Goldstone, J. A. (2009). Rethinking Revolutions: Integrating Origins, Processes, and Outcomes. Comparative Studies of South Asia, Africa and the Middle East 29(1): 18–32.
  • Goodwin, J. (2011). Reform and Revolution in the Arab Spring. Unpublished manuscript.
  • Hammer, J. with A. Ismail. (2011). Egypt: Who Calls the Shots?. The New York Review of Books, July 20.
  • Karam, Z. (2011). Syrian Troops Fire at Anti-Regime Protesters. Associated Press, 30 September.
  • Kirkpatrick, D. D. (2011). Chief of Tunisian Army Pledges Support for the Revolution. The New York Times, January 24.
  • Maclean, W. (2011). Syrian Army Defections Have Yet to Reach Critical Mass. The Daily Star, Lebanon, 8 September.
  • McGreal, C. and M. Tran. (2011). Egypt’s New Cabinet Announces 15% Rise in Salaries and Pensions. The Guardian, February 7.
  • Nepstad, S. E. (2011). Nonviolent Revolutions: Civil Resistance in the Late 20th Century. New York: Oxford University Press.
  • Oweis, K. Y. (2011). Army Storms Rastan as Defections Rise in Syria. The Daily Star, Lebanon, 28 September.
  • Owen, P. (2011). Syrian Soldiers Executed for Refusing to Target Activists. The Guardian, 9 September.
  • Ritter, D. Forthcoming in 2013. States and Nonviolent Revolutions. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
  • Sharp, G. (1973). The Politics of Nonviolent Action. Boston: Porter Sargent.
  • Sharp, G. (2010). From Dictatorship to Democracy. Cambridge, MA: Albert Einstein Institute.
  • Sly, L. (2011). “Syrian Army Defectors Organize Against Assad. The Seattle Times, 25 September.
  • Stephan, M. and E. Chenoweth. (2008). “Why Civil Resistance Works: The Strategic Logic of Nonviolent Conflict. International Security 33(1): 7–44.
  • Van Dam, N. (2011). The Struggle for Power in Syria: Politics and Society Under Asad and the Ba’th Party. London: I.B. Tauris & Co Ltd.
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JCU Cairns Campus | car parking turmoil


James Cook University Students association and students are up in arms over the decision of the University to remove the free parking in front of Block A4.

It dooes seem obvious that students carparking infrastructure has not keept pace with increases in students numbers. This reflects a lack of proper planning and funding.

The introduction of a permit based parking in front of A4 ( free until this semester ) has created a chaotic parking situation and the purpose of the permit appears to be a revenue raising.

The Student Association has launched a petition to reinstate the free parkingin front of Block A4. If you are frustrated with the new parking arrangements, if you think they create chaos, then why not visit the Association office and sign the petition. It will come down to you. You have the power to say enough is enough.

Below is the Facebook link.


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