Galaxy poll finds no Julia Gillard Government MP would survive election in Queensland, with 23% primary vote
- From: The Courier-Mail
- May 19, 2012
And the majority of voters say this humiliation would be just desserts for Labor. Almost 60 per cent of respondents to the poll said Labor deserved to be reduced to a rump of one or two seats in Queensland.
Under Julia Gillard, Labor's primary vote has, for the second time, fallen to the lowest level recorded in the history of the Galaxy poll.
The 23 per cent primary vote marks a slump of more than 10 points since the last election.
It's a decline of seven points since the last state-based federal
poll in November and takes Labor back to its low recorded in a Galaxy
poll last August.
The Liberal National Party primary vote is now at 56 per cent. This would see Labor crushed in Queensland by 64 per cent to 36 per cent on a two-party-preferred basis, assuming preference flows from the past election.
The collapse in support suggests federal Labor has not gained any benefit after voters took out their anger on former premier Anna Bligh in March.
Galaxy chief David Briggs said the dire poll for federal Labor was in line with the two-party preferred figure observed in the state election.
"Support for the federal Labor Party has slumped in Queensland. Voters look like they are prepared to give Julia Gillard's federal team the same treatment that was meted out to the Bligh government in the recent state election," Mr Briggs said. The poll surveyed 800 people across Queensland last Tuesday and Wednesday.
It came just over a week after the Government used its Budget to promise $5 billion in new handouts to ease cost-of-living pressures for families and people on low incomes.
In the same week, the Government starting running advertisements promoting its coming suite of tax cuts and welfare boosts designed to compensate for the carbon tax.
But community opposition to the carbon tax appears to be growing stronger as the July 1 start date approaches.
Only 25 per cent of voters supported the carbon tax and 72 were opposed, the poll found. Among Labor supporters, a small majority of 54 per cent supported the carbon tax. But among the LNP supporters who Labor needs to win over, only 8 per cent backed the tax.
Opinions have hardened in the nine months since a Galaxy poll in August found 28 per cent supported the tax and 67 per cent were opposed.
While other politicians have bounced back from serious scandals, Julia Gillard's fight is all but lost because Australians don't know what she stands for, experts warn.
The brand trouble began when she knifed her boss Kevin Rudd, but things only got worse when she won a tricky minority government.
"Winning minority government meant she had to appease so many stakeholders," psychologist Adam Ferrier said. "It meant making promises to certain people and breaking them to appease others.
"This creates the general perception that she is not true to her word and will not stand by her convictions and that she is playing politics instead of setting a vision. It means she appears conniving and her brand is now a lost cause."
Ms Gillard has been accused of backflipping over issues such as a carbon tax and criticised for her treatment of scandal-plagued backbencher Craig Thomson
.
Mr Ferrier said problems faced by politicians such as former US president Bill Clinton and former PM John Howard were not terminal because their problems fitted with their brand and did not create confusion about what they stood for.
"Clinton got away with his salacious behaviour because it wasn't at odds with his charismatic personality. In a way, it built into his brand," Mr Ferrier said. "And while Howard was often disliked, the way he was disliked built into his brand - you always knew what he stood for."
QUT marketing expert Edwina Luck said political marketing and branding was critical given the rise of the swinging voter.
Dr Luck said Ms Gillard suffered from not being accessible to the public and not showing her true self. "She is not coming across as warm, she is not showing off her true persona, and that has harmed her image," Dr Luck said. Changing the perception of Ms Gillard's image was "very very difficult".
"It's going to take much more than the delivery of promises because people don't see her as real and accessible," she said.
Dr Luck said Ms Gillard needed to relax in front of the camera and do more interviews where voters could see her as a real person. However, she warned taking to Twitter too forcefully could see her labelled simply a Kevin Rudd copycat.
______________________ | ____________________
Under Julia Gillard, Labor's primary vote has, for the second time, fallen to the lowest level recorded in the history of the Galaxy poll.
The 23 per cent primary vote marks a slump of more than 10 points since the last election.
The Liberal National Party primary vote is now at 56 per cent. This would see Labor crushed in Queensland by 64 per cent to 36 per cent on a two-party-preferred basis, assuming preference flows from the past election.
The collapse in support suggests federal Labor has not gained any benefit after voters took out their anger on former premier Anna Bligh in March.
Galaxy chief David Briggs said the dire poll for federal Labor was in line with the two-party preferred figure observed in the state election.
"Support for the federal Labor Party has slumped in Queensland. Voters look like they are prepared to give Julia Gillard's federal team the same treatment that was meted out to the Bligh government in the recent state election," Mr Briggs said. The poll surveyed 800 people across Queensland last Tuesday and Wednesday.
It came just over a week after the Government used its Budget to promise $5 billion in new handouts to ease cost-of-living pressures for families and people on low incomes.
In the same week, the Government starting running advertisements promoting its coming suite of tax cuts and welfare boosts designed to compensate for the carbon tax.
But community opposition to the carbon tax appears to be growing stronger as the July 1 start date approaches.
Only 25 per cent of voters supported the carbon tax and 72 were opposed, the poll found. Among Labor supporters, a small majority of 54 per cent supported the carbon tax. But among the LNP supporters who Labor needs to win over, only 8 per cent backed the tax.
Opinions have hardened in the nine months since a Galaxy poll in August found 28 per cent supported the tax and 67 per cent were opposed.
Why Julia will never win our hearts
AUSTRALIA is set to never love Julia Gillard. That's the verdict of marketing experts who say the Prime Minister has trashed her personal brand beyond repair.While other politicians have bounced back from serious scandals, Julia Gillard's fight is all but lost because Australians don't know what she stands for, experts warn.
The brand trouble began when she knifed her boss Kevin Rudd, but things only got worse when she won a tricky minority government.
"Winning minority government meant she had to appease so many stakeholders," psychologist Adam Ferrier said. "It meant making promises to certain people and breaking them to appease others.
"This creates the general perception that she is not true to her word and will not stand by her convictions and that she is playing politics instead of setting a vision. It means she appears conniving and her brand is now a lost cause."
Ms Gillard has been accused of backflipping over issues such as a carbon tax and criticised for her treatment of scandal-plagued backbencher Craig Thomson
.
Mr Ferrier said problems faced by politicians such as former US president Bill Clinton and former PM John Howard were not terminal because their problems fitted with their brand and did not create confusion about what they stood for.
"Clinton got away with his salacious behaviour because it wasn't at odds with his charismatic personality. In a way, it built into his brand," Mr Ferrier said. "And while Howard was often disliked, the way he was disliked built into his brand - you always knew what he stood for."
QUT marketing expert Edwina Luck said political marketing and branding was critical given the rise of the swinging voter.
Dr Luck said Ms Gillard suffered from not being accessible to the public and not showing her true self. "She is not coming across as warm, she is not showing off her true persona, and that has harmed her image," Dr Luck said. Changing the perception of Ms Gillard's image was "very very difficult".
"It's going to take much more than the delivery of promises because people don't see her as real and accessible," she said.
Dr Luck said Ms Gillard needed to relax in front of the camera and do more interviews where voters could see her as a real person. However, she warned taking to Twitter too forcefully could see her labelled simply a Kevin Rudd copycat.
______________________ | ____________________
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