Sunday, 18 March 2012

Qld ALP is facing a rout of bibical proportions

Labor polling echoes 1974 election

Anna Bligh
RESULTS LACKING: Premier Anna Bligh. Source: The Courier-Mail
WHEN Anna Bligh stormed home in the last week of the 2009 state election campaign, she was regarded as thrashing her opponent, Lawrence Springborg. 

Then, the final Galaxy Poll before voting day gave Bligh a formidable 50 per cent to 34 per cent lead on who was performing best in that campaign. This indicates the political souffle is not going to rise twice. This is a bad poll for Bligh - whichever way you look at it.

The Labor primary vote is stuck at 30 per cent which is where it has been, within the margin of error, for the past year, while the LNP is within reach of half the vote in its own right.
The worst result for Labor was 1974 when the party finished with only 11 seats - the cricket team, as it was called - after picking up only 36 per cent of the primary vote.

If today's poll played out as a uniform swing, Labor would have another cricket team - 12 MPs, meaning someone could carry the drinks.

The poll points to most Queenslanders having made up their minds about this election long ago and the negative attacks and mudslinging of the past few weeks have done little, if anything, to change minds - although the ground war is having an impact in some seats, such as Ashgrove.

In fact, Labor's negative assault on Newman has backfired on the ALP's best - perhaps only - asset, the Premier.

In just four weeks, Bligh's satisfaction rating has gone from negative 9 (calculated by subtracting the negatives from the positives) to a whopping minus 25.

Newman's dissatisfaction rating has inched higher from 40 to 44 per cent but his positives are moving north, too. It's almost unheard of for an Opposition leader to have a satisfaction rating of 49 per cent at any time, let alone just before polling day, when opinions are polarised.

Newman's positive ratings shine through in the better premier contest in which he carries half the state.

The poll also confirms what most observers thought - the driving force on both sides is a greater dislike of the other side, rather than positive feelings towards whichever party people are voting for.
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